Prediction market txs surge on geopolitical bets, media coverage

Monthly notional trading volume for prediction markets has reached roughly $23.7 billion so far in March, up sharply from $1.9 billion at the same time last year.

Prediction market transactions have hit record highs in March, amid growing interest in political and geopolitical event contracts, improved accessibility and positive regulatory developments for the industry.

According to prediction markets data tracked by Dune, the number of transactions for March is over 191 million so far, which is already a 2,838% increase compared to the same time last year. 

Blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs said in a report on Friday that the sector has grown significantly with Google Finance and mainstream media coverage of live odds. 

“Prediction markets have scaled rapidly due to improved accessibility, regulatory developments, and integration with mainstream platforms. They are increasingly used as real-time indicators of geopolitical and macroeconomic events,” TRM Labs said.

Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts on the outcome of future events. They are emerging as a significant real-world use case for blockchain, with some platforms relying on crypto rails and stablecoins for settlement and payments.

Monthly notional trading volume for prediction markets reached roughly $23.9 billion in March so far, up sharply from $1.9 billion at the same time last year, according to Dune, though still 12% below January’s all-time high.

TRM Labs noted that crypto-native topics have taken a back seat as users flock to contracts tied to political and global events.

“Geopolitical events, US politics, and macroeconomic decisions account for the majority of trading volume. Crypto-native topics, while prevalent, now represent a smaller share of overall activity,” the TRM Labs team said.

Polymarket data shows that the five highest-volume contracts as of Monday center on who the major US political parties will nominate for the 2028 presidential race and whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will remain in office by year-end.

Prediction markets have faced increasing scrutiny over allegations of insider trading and potential violations of gambling laws.

In March, Kalshi and Polymarket announced plans to introduce trading guardrails, the same day US lawmakers unveiled a bipartisan bill to ban event contracts that resemble a “casino-style game.”

Related: Nevada judge temporarily blocks Kalshi from operating in the state

Going forward, TRM Labs said the continued growth of prediction markets will depend on how key challenges, such as market integrity and susceptibility to manipulation, are addressed.

“Looking ahead, prediction markets have the potential to evolve beyond speculative platforms into core infrastructure for real-time information aggregation and risk pricing,” TRM Labs said.

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Source: CoinTelegraph