Split Fed Keeps Rates at 3.75%-4% While Bitcoin Hovers Near $80,000

โดย Coinvote

เผยแพร่เมื่อ October 29, 2026 - 07:22 UTC | อ่านใน 5 นาที

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate in a 10-2 vote on Wednesday, with two officials pushing for a quarter-point hike. Traders now see a December increase as likely, which leaves bitcoin facing a higher-yield competitor and a run of data releases.

Fed holds rates, but two officials wanted to raise them

The Federal Reserve left its federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday. The committee voted 10-2, according to Decrypt, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack favoring a quarter-point increase. The Defiant reported the same split and noted that it followed a unanimous rate hike in September.

The statement itself shifted in tone. Bitcoin Magazine said the committee dropped earlier wording about when a hike might help return inflation to 2%. In its place, the statement says that further information will shape the committee's policy position. Decrypt quoted the statement as calling economic activity strong, an upgrade on the word solid used in September.

Bitcoin's muted reaction to the decision

Bitcoin barely reacted in the first minutes. Decrypt said it edged up about 0.2% to roughly $80,950 after the 2 p.m. ET announcement. According to CME FedWatch, a hold was priced at roughly 90% ahead of the announcement, so the outcome itself offered little surprise.

Bitcoin Magazine described a slightly wider swing. The price spiked to about $81,700, dropped below $80,500 and then recovered toward $81,000. The Defiant summarized the move as bitcoin giving back a brief gain.

CoinGecko data shows bitcoin at $79,814, down 1.2% over 24 hours and 3.5% over seven days. That puts it under the $80,000 level that Bitcoin Magazine described as support in recent sessions.

Why yields, oil and inflation sit behind the hawkish tone

Bitcoin pays no yield, so higher returns on government debt make it harder to attract capital. Cointelegraph quoted Iggy Ioppe of the tokenization platform Theo, who said bitcoin has to "compete with" a risk-free rate near 4%. He added that markets had priced the hold but not the hawkish tone.

Decrypt laid out the inflation backdrop. U.S. consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months through September, and gasoline jumped 9.1% in the month, according to the Labor Department. U.S. crude settled at $99.90 a barrel on Tuesday, which Decrypt linked to supply pressure from the U.S.-Iran war.

The 10-year Treasury yield closed Tuesday at 4.99%, down from a peak of 5.31% on Oct. 5, Decrypt reported. A yield that high gives investors a near-risk-free alternative to volatile assets.

The numbers that frame the decision

The figures below come from the outlets' reporting and show how tightly the market has priced the next move.

Cointelegraph reported that CME FedWatch priced a 78.4% chance of a 25-basis-point hike by December, and a 67.3% chance of one or more such hikes by March.
Spot bitcoin ETFs took in $110 million in net inflows on October 26 and $176 million on October 27, Bitcoin Magazine reported.
Bitcoin trades about a third below its October 2025 record near $126,000, per Bitcoin Magazine. CoinGecko lists the all-time high at $126,080.
About $481 million in crypto positions were liquidated within 24 hours after Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech in August, Decrypt reported.

How the outlets' accounts compare

All four outlets agree on the vote, the rate range and the two dissenters. They differ on emphasis and on price levels. Bitcoin Magazine headlined a price above $81,500, while Decrypt put bitcoin near $80,950 right after the announcement. The gap reflects different timestamps rather than a factual conflict.

On rate expectations, Decrypt said traders put the odds of a December hike above 70% before the decision. Bitcoin Magazine cited pricing near three in four. Cointelegraph gave the most precise post-decision reading at 78.4%.

Each outlet also adds something the others lack. Bitcoin Magazine says it was the first time since 1992 that a governor and a regional bank president dissented together on the same side. Decrypt traces the dissent count back to July, when Hammack was joined by Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan in a 9-3 vote. Both later sided with the majority.

Cointelegraph focuses on what analysts say will move bitcoin next. Bitget's Lewis Huang pointed to Treasury yields, the dollar and risk sentiment rather than the Fed alone.

What it means for bitcoin holders and project teams

Warsh would not say whether the Fed plans a rate increase at its year-end meeting. Cointelegraph quoted him saying that a lot can happen before the group meets again. Bitcoin Magazine added that Warsh opposes giving forward guidance except during a crisis. Investors therefore have to read incoming data directly, and short-term moves may track releases more than speeches.

For traders, Decrypt's note on leverage matters. Borrowed positions get closed automatically when prices move against them, and those liquidations can amplify swings around Fed events. Holders using leverage can check how close their liquidation levels sit to the $80,000 area.

Project teams that raise or price in dollars face the same backdrop. A higher-for-longer rate path can weigh on risk appetite across crypto, though the outlets do not tie it to any specific project.

The calendar to watch before December

The next catalyst is Thursday's personal consumption expenditures inflation report. Cointelegraph said analysts are also watching big technology earnings. Sygnum Bank's Fabian Dori said the earnings should show whether AI spending is turning into revenue.

Decrypt listed the October jobs report on Nov. 6 and October inflation data on Nov. 10. The Fed meets again Dec. 8-9 and will publish new economic projections. Bitcoin Magazine also flagged the Nov. 3 midterm elections. It reported that crypto-industry spending reached roughly $176 million across over 100 midterm contests.

Whether bitcoin holds the $80,000 level, and whether the dissenters win over more colleagues, remain open questions.

Market snapshot

Asset	Price	24h	7d	Market cap
Bitcoin (BTC)	$79,814	-1.2%	-3.5%	$1.60 trillion

CoinGecko data as of 2026-10-29 (UTC).

FAQ

What did the Fed decide on Wednesday?

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% in a 10-2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike.

How likely is a December rate hike?

Cointelegraph, citing CME FedWatch, reported a 78.4% probability of a quarter-point increase by December. The Fed's next meeting is Dec. 8-9, and Chair Kevin Warsh declined to say what the committee will do.

Why do higher rates matter for bitcoin?

Bitcoin pays no yield, so higher Treasury yields offer investors a competing return. Decrypt reported the 10-year yield closed at 4.99% on Tuesday, and money tends to drift away from riskier assets when Treasuries pay more.