Ether accumulation data predicts rally to $2.8K, but there’s a catch

Ether bulls appear to be targeting $2,800 as their next stop, but ETH futures data shows a divided market with limited odds for a sustained 33% rally.

After reaching a monthly high of $2,209 on Friday, Ether (ETH) price fell back below a key monthly resistance, which has been tested five times since February.

While onchain data highlights a large cluster of investors near $2,800, Ether’s futures market data shows traders are scaling back positions after this week’s rally.

Data from Glassnode indicated that ETH’s cost-basis distribution heatmap shows a heavy accumulation near $2,800, where more than 3 million ETH were previously purchased.

The cost-basis clusters identify the price zones where large groups of investors established positions, often acting as magnets during upward moves as investors defend entry levels or add exposure.

The data suggests a potential pathway toward $2,800. Notably, there is a relatively limited historical supply concentration between $2,200 and the $2,800 cost-basis cluster, meaning a break above the current range may allow the price to move more freely into that range.

From a technical standpoint, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) also intersects near the $2,800 level on the daily chart, a key indicator ETH has not approached since early January.

However, derivatives data suggest traders remain cautious near the present price range.

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Ether’s futures market activity expanded during this week’s rally, with open interest rising 21% to $10.9 billion from $9 billion this week as the price pushed toward $2,200. The increase suggests traders were opening new leveraged positions as Ether moved higher.

However, the positioning shifted once ETH tested the upper range. Open interest fell roughly 6% after the $2,200 test, indicating some traders began closing positions rather than adding new exposure.

The pullback suggests long traders likely took profit or reduced risk near the upper boundary of the range, slowing the rally’s momentum.

Spot market activity showed improving demand during the move. Spot volume cumulative delta (CVD), which tracks aggressive buying versus selling, rose sharply to $87 million from -$150 million on March 8, indicating buyers stepped in as Ether rebounded from the $2,000 region.

However, order-flow data reflected a fading bullish sentiment. The bid–ask ratio remained strongly positive while Ether consolidated near $2,000, showing buyers dominated trading during the range phase.

That strength faded as the price approached $2,150, signaling reduced buying pressure near the top of the move.

Hyblock data offered additional clarity in the derivatives markets. The futures positioning remains relatively balanced, with long traders accounting for about 59.4% of Ether futures exposure on Binance.

Such a balanced outlook often leads to choppy price action as the market struggles to decisively break through nearby resistance levels.

The data shows a divergence forming, while past ETH accumulation points toward a rally to $2,800. With this in mind, it is clear that Ether futures traders remain cautious near ETH’s current range.

Related: Ethereum accumulation wallets jump 30%: Will ETH price follow?

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Source: CoinTelegraph