Bitcoin shorts above $70K at risk since ‘90% of downside’ is already complete

Bitcoin price data suggests BTC remains undervalued and that short positions opened above $70,000 face a high risk of liquidation.

Bitcoin (BTC) futures data shows that traders who opened new short positions above $70,000 over the weekend could be at risk of liquidation as a wave of leveraged positions were closed on Monday.

The weekly change in Bitcoin futures market open interest fell to -2.46% on Monday, down from a 8.9% increase on March 31, suggesting a decline in leverage.

Multiple long-term Bitcoin valuation metrics also sit at historic lows, with analysts estimating that nearly 90% of the downside has already been priced in. 

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr noted the weekly change in aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) measured in BTC. The metric peaked at 8.9% on March 31 as the price pushed above $73,000. By April 4, it flipped to -7.2%, marking the sharpest contraction in the period. The seven-day change stands at -2.46% on Monday, with the total OI near 318,000 BTC.

The shift into negative territory occurred on Sunday, placing the deleveraging phase in its early stage. Adler said that the price holding above $70,000 during this contraction shows that a large portion of long-side leverage has been closed without a cascading liquidation that crashed the BTC price.

OI does not distinguish between voluntary closures and forced liquidations, so the move is described as a broad leverage reset.

Funding rate data adds a second layer. The seven-day average funding rate across Binance, Bybit and OKX has dropped from 0.33% on March 31 to -0.1738% by April 13.

Bybit and OKX show deeper negative values, signaling a stronger short-side tilt. The negative funding means sellers are paying buyers to hold positions.

This indicates growing pressure on the short positions if the price holds steady, as the positioning is leaning against the current uptrend.

The current setup shows long positions under pressure exited first, then shorts stepped in. A stable price above $70,000 in the face of this shift creates conditions where late short exposure can be squeezed if BTC demand returns.

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MN Capital Founder Michaël van de Poppe pointed to three long-term indicators sitting at extreme lows. The Puell Multiple Z-Score, which compares the Bitcoin miner revenue to historical averages, is at its lowest reading in a decade. Similar levels appeared near the 2018, 2020, and 2022 BTC price bottoms.

The spent output profit ratio (SOPR) Z-Score, which tracks whether coins are sold at a profit or a loss, has reached its lowest point on record. It shows widespread realization of losses, often seen near exhaustion phases. 

The market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) Z-Score has also printed its weakest reading ever, placing the BTC price near aggregate cost-basis zones.

Together, these metrics show that most investors are no longer sitting on large profits, and much of the earlier euphoric buying has cooled.

This type of reset often follows heavy selling, where short-term traders exit positions and coins shift toward holders with a longer-term outlook.

While the price levels between $64,000 and $66,000 show visible liquidity, $74,000 remains a tested ceiling. Van de Poppe said, 

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Source: CoinTelegraph