US CPI comes in lower than expected, but April rate cut still unlikely

Although US inflation was weaker than expected in March, the ongoing war between the United States, Iran and Israel has fueled macroeconomic uncertainty.

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, showing a 0.9% month-over-month rise in headline CPI inflation.

CPI inflation is up 3.3% year-over-year, according to the BLS report published Friday. Although inflation came in slightly lower than analyst expectations, inflation remains elevated above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

A surge in energy prices from the Iran war drove March’s inflation figures, with the energy index rising by nearly 11%, led by a 21.2% rise in gasoline prices, the BLS report said.

Managing inflation is part of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, which influences its decision-making on interest rates and broader monetary policy.

Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrency prices are significantly impacted by interest rate policy, with lower interest rates stimulating asset prices by expanding credit that flows into financial markets and higher rates restricting capital flows and asset prices.

Related: Bitcoin steadies after PCE inflation data, $80K target remains

Investors forecast a 0% chance of an interest rate cut at the April Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

The odds that the FOMC will keep rates on hold are 98.4%. Rate cut odds increase only incrementally throughout the year.

FOMC members are divided on further rate cuts in 2026, due to inflationary pressures from the ongoing war, and rate hikes have not been ruled out.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) rose by over 1.5% on Friday, briefly tapping the $73,000 level following the latest CPI print. 

“The $73,000–$75,000 zone is our next major target,” said Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at crypto exchange-traded product provider 21shares. “If BTC clears this, expect a brief period of sideways consolidation before a test of $80,000. Should the Clarity Act pass, the stage is set for $100,000 BTC and a $3 trillion–$3.2 trillion total crypto market cap by the end of Q2,” he added.

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Source: CoinTelegraph