Traders say Bitcoin still due for ‘next leg lower’ targeting $46K BTC price

BTC price action looked weaker after Sunday's weekly close below the 200-week MA, with Bitcoin market participants bracing for lower levels.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) failure to close the week above the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) on Sunday put it at risk of another downward leg over the coming weeks or months.

Bitcoin price signals “structural weakness” with failure to close week above a key trend line.

Analysts say the next breakdown clears path for another sell-off toward $46,000.

The $47,000 level features as a deep structural support for Bitcoin. 

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD trading at $71,190, or 6% higher than its intraday low of $67,300.

The pair had failed to produce a weekly close above the 200-weekly EMA on Sunday, currently at $68,300, suggesting that last week’s relief rally to $76,000 was a possible bull trap.

There is evidence of profit-taking every time Bitcoin rises to key accumulation levels, and commenting on the current market setup, many traders warned that any downside could snowball quickly.

Related: Bitcoin risks 50% drop as BTC’s positive correlation with US stocks grows

“$BTC broke down from the rising wedge over the weekend,” said analyst Jelle in a Monday post on X, adding:

The analyst was referring to the area between the local low of $65,500 and the range low of $59,930 reached on Feb. 6.

“BTC has lost the EMA50 once again, and the global crisis feels more insecure today than it did 2 weeks ago,” fellow analyst Stockmoney Lizards said in the latest Bitcoin analysis on X.

Combined with the technical weakness, “it looks like we could be revisiting the sub-$60K area,” the analyst added.

“Bitcoin is getting close to taking that next leg lower into the mid-$40Ks,” analyst Michael J. Kramer said, referring to the measured target of a bear flag around $46,600.

These targets echo prediction market traders, who price in a 70% chance that Bitcoin drops below $55,000 in 2026, while placing the odds of a drop below $45,000 at 46%. 

Bitcoin is trading near the 200-week EMA at $68,300, coinciding with the realized price of the “largest holder cohort (100-1K BTC),” according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.

“As long as the price holds above $68K, the largest cohort remains near its cost basis and maintains a more resilient position,” Adler Jr. said in a Bitcoin analysis on Monday, adding:

Meanwhile, the realized price of the 10-100 BTC holder cohort sits notably lower around $46,700, forming a “deep structural threshold that would become meaningful only in the event of a full-scale deterioration in market regime,” the analyst added.

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Source: CoinTelegraph