Polymarket bettors threatened a journalist over an Iran missile report

Critics have been warning that prediction markets tied to wars could incentivize insider trading, which lawmakers in the US and abroad have moved to regulate.

Prediction markets platform Polymarket says it has now banned and reported users who pressured an Israeli journalist with death threats to amend a news article about an Iranian missile strike that was the subject of a $17 million prediction market. 

The Times of Israel military correspondent Emanuel Fabian wrote in a report on Monday that he began receiving messages to change his report about an Iranian missile that struck outside the Israeli city of Beit Shemesh on March 10.

“As far as I now understand, the emails I received were intended to confirm whether or not a missile had hit Israel on March 10 in order to resolve a prediction on Polymarket,” he wrote.

The market allowed bets on what date Iran would strike Israel, with over $17 million currently wagered on March 10. 

The rules state the market “will resolve to ‘Yes’ if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date,” however, a clause in the rules adds that “missiles or drones that are intercepted” wouldn't be counted even if they land in Israel.

“My minor report on a missile striking an open area was now in the middle of a betting war, with those who had bet ‘No’ on an Iranian strike on Israel on March 10 demanding I change my article to ensure they would win big,” Fabian wrote.

No injuries are reported in Iran's latest ballistic missile attack on Israel, the fourth today.One missile struck an open area just outside Beit Shemesh, first responders say and footage shows.Sirens had sounded across the Jerusalem area, the West Bank, and parts of southern… pic.twitter.com/j6sovAsDwz

Trading volumes on prediction markets, the largest being Polymarket and Kalshi, have surged in the past year, but critics and lawmakers have warned that popular markets tied to war and political events could incentivize insider trading.

Fabian said he received emails, messages and calls to change his report to say the strike was a missile fragment, with one individual also fabricating a message to make it appear that Fabian agreed the missile was intercepted.

Fabian said he received lengthy, threatening messages in Hebrew from someone called “Haim,” who told him to alter the report or there would be “damage you have never imagined you would suffer.”

Fabian said Haim warned he was “at risk,” that they would invest money “to finish you,” that he “made a fatal mistake” and that he had made “enemies who will be willing to pay anything to make your life miserable.”

Haim also gave “specific details” about his parents, family and neighborhood, he added.

Fabian said he went to the police over the threats, who are now investigating.

Polymarket said in a statement posted to X on Monday that it “condemns the harassment & threats directed at Emanuel Fabian — or anyone else for that matter.”

Related: Israel arrests two over Polymarket trades on military operations

“This behavior violates our Terms of Service & has no place on our platform. We've banned the accounts for all involved & will pass their info to the relevant authorities,” it added.

Fabian added that, before the threatening messages, a colleague from another media outlet had contacted him, saying an acquaintance was requesting to change the report. 

That journalist later confronted their acquaintance over the request, who admitted to placing bets on Polymarket and offering a portion of the winnings if the report was changed.

“The attempt by these gamblers to pressure me to change my reporting so that they would win their bet did not and will not succeed,” Fabian said. “But I do worry that other journalists may not be as ethical if they are promised some of the winnings.”

The results of the market over when Iran would strike Israel on Polymarket were in dispute at the time of writing, with “No” bettors asserting the explosion on March 10 was an intercepted missile.

However, Fabian later reported that the Israeli Defense Forces confirmed the missile that exploded outside of Beit Shemesh was not intercepted.

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Source: CoinTelegraph