BTC and gold divergence reflects split between retail and central banks: Analyst

21Shares' macro chief looks at why Bitcoin has held relatively steady since the start of Middle East hostilities, while gold has slipped below $4,500 and key support levels.

The divergence between gold and Bitcoin (BTC) in 2026 can be explained by two distinct segments of buyers, according to Stephen Coltman, head of macro at crypto exchange-traded product (ETP) provider 21Shares.

Gold’s rally over the last three years has been primarily fueled by central bank buying, while Bitcoin is more widely held by individuals than financial institutions, Coltman told Cointelegraph. He said:

However, BTC has more utility for individuals who may use it as an alternative “lifeline” when local banking infrastructure fails during times of crisis, and accessing the traditional financial system is not possible. 

“Shortly after the conflict started, both the Dubai and Abu Dhabi exchanges were shut down following missile and drone strikes from Iran,” which, he said, is a “stark reminder” of how valuable 24/7 access is in wartime situations or other emergencies.

Coltman told Cointelegraph that the inverse correlation between BTC and gold means that investors should hold both to benefit from each asset’s unique properties.

Ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks over the last several years drove gold to an all-time high of nearly $5,600 per ounce in January 2026.

However, heightened volatility dragged the precious metal back down to about $4,497 per ounce, leading to renewed debate among analysts about gold’s role as a store of value asset, and how it will perform against Bitcoin in the coming years.

Related: Bitcoin vs gold shows potential bottom signals as BTC bulls defend $70K

Bitcoin is likely to outperform gold over the next three years, according to macroeconomist Lyn Alden.

“It’s usually a pendulum between the two. If gold has gone up as much as it did, the entire diminishing return story per cycle is going to be erased in the coming one, too,” Alden said.

However, former hedge fund manager Ray Dalio expects that BTC will never replace gold as a store-of-value asset because it still trades like a risk-on asset with correlation to technology stocks, while gold is entrenched as a reserve asset in the banking system.

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Source: CoinTelegraph