‘Rich Dad, Poor Dad’ author says ‘pin is near’ on TradFi ‘bubble burst:’ Predicts $750K Bitcoin
익명에 의해
Author and personal finance educator Robert Kiyosaki says Bitcoin is going to $750,000, but there's a catch.
Robert Kiyosaki’s $750,000 Bitcoin target implies a 95% discount versus gold, which is lower than the 2024 peak.
$750,000 Bitcoin might not be that significant if daily expenses, housing and energy rise in like kind.
Robert Kiyosaki, author of the "Rich Dad Poor Dad" series, stated in a social media post on Monday that a massive financial "bubble burst" is imminent. The financial educator suggests this unprecedented economic crisis will eventually lead to a $750,000 Bitcoin (BTC) rally within one year of the crash.
While Kiyosaki’s estimate seems extremely bullish at first sight, a more granular view gives deeper meaning to his price prediction.
For a prediction to be valid, one needs a timeframe, even if it is stretched out over the next 12 months or more. Even if the Bitcoin price eventually reaches $750,000, the measure of success will largely depend on average US house prices or the annual cost of living for a typical family.
Accelerated expansion of the global monetary supply, such as the period between 2020 and 2021, tends to trigger a surge in demand for scarce assets, regardless of official government inflation metrics. For instance, the S&P 500 gained 52% between July 2020 and December 2021, while average home prices in major US capital cities surged by 38% in two years.
Kiyosaki anticipates that gold prices will surge to $35,000 per ounce one year after the financial "bubble burst," which would be a 546% gain from its highest-ever daily close. As a comparison, Bitcoin’s optimistic $750,000 target stands 500% above its $124,724 record daily close.
Kiyosaki’s target for gold yields a $243.2 trillion market capitalization, which is 4.4 times larger than the current aggregate market cap for the entire S&P 500.
Kiyosaki believes the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio should reach 21.5, far below the 40 all-time high from December 2024. More concerningly, the current 200-day moving average for the ratio stands at 22, making Kiyosaki’s estimate far from bullish for the cryptocurrency. Additionally, gold’s annual output should grow considerably if its price surges to such levels.
Kiyosaki has reportedly been predicting great economic crashes since at least 2011 without much success, according to US News. In a September 2015 post, Kiyosaki said, "I've been predicting since '02 that we would see a stock market crash in '16," while the S&P 500 actually gained 9.5% in that year. Trying to time market moves more than 10 years in advance seems rather unconventional.
In May 2024, Kiyosaki posted that the biggest crash in history had begun, advising followers to "not get greedy" and avoid catching "falling knives." The suggestion came five months after a prior warning about a bank credit sell-off similar to 2008. More than 20 months later, nothing remotely similar has occurred.
Related: Lyn Alden tips Bitcoin outperforming gold over next ‘two to three years’
In May 2024, Kiyosaki recommended saving in gold and silver, although Bitcoin was also mentioned. However, the S&P 500 rallied 16% over the following 8 months, while gold prices gained 15% and silver traded up 11%. Ultimately, Kiyosaki has a less-than-favourable track record and has been skewed toward favoring market collapses.
Even if Bitcoin hits $750,000, it does not mean the cryptocurrency will emerge as a top-5 asset by market capitalization, especially as Kiyosaki expects silver to surpass $11 trillion after the so-called "bubble burst." Ultimately, the bold prediction is far from bullish for Bitcoin investors despite Kiyosaki’s high target price.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Source: CoinTelegraph
