XRP risk-reward improves as whale accumulation rises: Will price follow?

XRP shows improving risk-adjusted returns alongside rising whale flows, but rising leverage use and repeat liquidations point to a fragile futures market.

The Sharpe Ratio for XRP (XRP), a measure of return per unit of risk, turned slightly positive on March 26, after spending months near or below zero between October 2024 and February 2025.

A 30-day average return of 0.00063 supports this positive shift, while the Sharpe ratio stands at 0.0267, which reflects that the “current returns still exceed risk”.

Onchain data indicates that whales have steadily accumulated XRP over the past month, pointing to demand despite the weak price action. 

Crypto analyst Arab Chain noted that the recent improvement in the Sharpe Ratio aligns with a pickup in trading activity, pointing to better returns for XRP holders in the long-term. The analyst explained that the ratio indicates a gradual positive rebalancing, which may limit further downside for the altcoin. Yet, the analyst added, 

Reinforcing the positive narrative, XRP whale flows have climbed to a 30-day moving average of $9 million per day. The positive flows have held since Feb. 27, marking the longest accumulation phase since April to July 2025.

The last accumulation phase in Q2 2025 led to XRP’s expansion rally to its all-time high of $3.65 on July 18, 2025. 

The combination of a positive Sharpe Ratio reading and steady whale inflows points to an improving sentiment alongside accumulation. The gains are minimal, with the volatility relatively stable. This alignment places focus on whether the whale inflows may continue to support consistent returns over time.

Related: XRP price risks 50% drop despite Goldman Sachs' $152M ETF exposure

Crypto analyst Amr Taha noted that the 24-hour open interest change reached 14.8% on March 26, its highest level since March 4, indicating renewed trader participation. This rise in activity also coincides with repeated long-side pressure, with liquidation events above $2.5 million on March 18, followed by similar spikes of $2.45 million on March 21 and $2.15 on March 26.

These moves show that aggressive long positioning is still being cleared during the short-term volatility. Thus, while the futures activity has risen, the frequent liquidation signals create an unstable market, where traders are exposed to continuous resets. 

The technical structure points to a clear bearish bias. XRP has invalidated its bullish ascending triangle pattern, declining 13.63% over the past 10 days. If the current market structure persists, the altcoin could retest support levels near internal liquidity at $1.27 and yearly lows at $1.11 in the coming weeks.

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Source: CoinTelegraph