Was $74K a bull trap? Bitcoin traders diverge on 2022 crash repeating

Bitcoin’s rebound to $74,000 sparked disagreement among traders as opinions diverged on whether the BTC price bottom is behind us.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded 4.5% below the $74,000 high reached on Thursday, with traders conflicted over whether this level may have marked the local top for BTC price. 

Bitcoin charts still show similarities to the 2022 bear cycle, suggesting another leg down below $60,000 is possible. 

Others say the bottom is in and expect a breakout rally to $75,000–$80,000 to be next. 

BTC’s current technical structure, following the latest recovery from $60,000, shows similarities with the middle of past bear cycles.

Bitcoin’s latest rise to $74,000 came 149 days after its bull market peak of $126,000 in October 2025.

Related: Bitcoin 'anomalous' outflow sees 32K BTC leave exchanges in a single day

“$BTC made a local high around 140–150 days after its all-time high in the previous two cycles before pushing lower,” said analyst Bitcoin Hyper in an X post on Thursday.

Echoing this view, pseudonymous trader Bitcoin Isaiah called the rally to $74,000 a "perfect local top indicator," pointing to premature celebrations by the bulls as a signal for further dumping.

The analyst referred to the 2022 cycle, when similar euphoria preceded a 68% crash from $48,200 to $15,500, suggesting that history could repeat with a revisit to sub-$60,000 levels.

Master of Crypto said that the brief pump above $70,000 was a liquidity trap, wiping out both shorts and longs before targeting lower zones between $62,000-$65,000 where more ask-orders are located, adding:

As Cointelegraph reported, signs of a pullback emerged this week after the rally to $74,000, namely a classic bearish chart pattern and major overhead resistance.

The bulls, however, argue that $60,000 was the likely market bottom, marking a structural shift.

For example, crypto analyst Bitcoin Munger said the 2022 Bitcoin bear fractal was not a “reason to be bearish” because this cycle is different.

An accompanying chart showed that while the 2022 drawdown saw the price “cut through” the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), the current only retested the trend line and bounced.

Meanwhile, analyst Mister Crypto says the BTC/USD pair is breaking out of an ascending triangle with the expectation of a “strong move to the upside,” if the upper trend line at $70,000 holds as support.

Other differences from the 2022 cycle include strong institutional ETF inflows and tightening supply, which may help Bitcoin avoid another crash and set it up for a rally to $75,000-$80,000.

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Source: CoinTelegraph