Hot October CPI Pushes Fed Hike Bets Higher and Bitcoin Toward $73,000

Oleh Coinvote

Diterbitkan November 11, 2026 - 07:22 UTC | 5 menit membaca

Hot October CPI Pushes Fed Hike Bets Higher and Bitcoin Toward $73,000

Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, above forecasts, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller has said a half-point hike should be considered in December. Bitcoin slipped toward $73,500 as traders weighed a bigger move than the quarter-point already expected.

Inflation beats forecasts hours after a Fed warning

Bitcoin fell on Tuesday after US consumer prices for October rose faster than economists had expected. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index gained 0.4% on the month against a forecast of 0.3%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% against an expected 0.2%, according to Cointelegraph.

The release followed remarks by Waller in London only hours earlier. He said another core reading of 0.3% or higher could justify a 50-basis-point hike in December and that a 25-basis-point move "would put our credibility at risk." Decrypt noted that October's core figure landed exactly on that threshold.

Bitcoin Magazine reported that bitcoin traded near $74,300 just before the 8:30 a.m. ET release and dropped to about $73,400 right after it. Decrypt gave a post-release low of roughly $73,525 and said the price then recovered toward $74,000.

Why a hot print matters when the Fed is already hiking

Cointelegraph reported that the Fed's benchmark rate stands at 3.75% to 4.00%, after a quarter-point increase in September and no change in October. According to Decrypt, a 50-basis-point increase would lift the range to 4.25%-4.50%.

Bitcoin pays no yield, so higher returns on cash and government bonds raise the opportunity cost of holding it. Decrypt pointed out that bitcoin often falls on hot inflation readings despite its reputation as an inflation hedge. Bitcoin Magazine said that arithmetic has capped the price since Friday's strong jobs report.

Leverage amplified the move. Decrypt reported that roughly $178 million of leveraged long trades were forcibly closed in the hour after the release. Liquidations occur when an exchange closes a borrowed-money trade because the collateral no longer covers losses, and the forced selling can push prices down further.

Carry trades and DeFi lending yields come under pressure

Adam Haeems of Tesseract Group told Cointelegraph that carry strategies profit from the spread between asset yields and funding costs. Rising borrowing costs squeeze that gap. Haeems pointed to Aave's main market, where USDC lenders received between roughly 3.2% and 7% during the prior fortnight, compared with steady three-month Treasury yields near 4.2%.

That comparison shows how on-chain lending rates now compete with traditional alternatives. Cointelegraph added that the gap could influence where investors place money if conventional assets pay more with less risk.

The numbers behind the selloff

The outlets reported the following figures around the release.

Headline CPI rose 0.4% in October against a 0.3% forecast, slower than September's 0.6%, according to Cointelegraph and Decrypt.
Per Cointelegraph, CME FedWatch data at 16:28 UTC put the odds of a December quarter-point increase at 88.3%, with 11.7% for a half-point move.
Decrypt, citing Reuters, said analysts raised the half-point probability to nearly 15% by midmorning.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $201 million in net withdrawals on Monday, with $213.2 million leaving BlackRock's IBIT for a seventh straight session, according to Bitcoin Magazine.
US spot ether ETFs lost $184.6 million on Monday, per Bitcoin Magazine.
Decrypt said the two-year Treasury yield posted its biggest increase since April 2025.
Total crypto market capitalization fell 1.6% over 24 hours to $2.57 trillion, according to Cointelegraph, citing CoinGecko.

Where the outlets agree and where they differ

All three full-text reports give the same CPI figures and the same Waller quote. They differ on price levels, largely because of timing. Cointelegraph put bitcoin near $73,274, down 2% over 24 hours, while Decrypt and Bitcoin Magazine described a decline of roughly 1%. Decrypt also said bitcoin lost about 4.5% over seven days, whereas CoinGecko shows a 5.3% weekly decline at the time of writing.

Ether quotes vary too. Cointelegraph had it near $2,028 after a drop of nearly 5%, Decrypt said it slipped toward $2,040, and Bitcoin Magazine cited about $2,100 for an overnight move of 1.4%.

On Waller's stance, Decrypt said he would back a quarter-point hike in December even if inflation improved. Bitcoin Magazine quoted him as "leaning toward" an increase. CoinDesk, in a headline and summary, likewise said he backs December tightening even if inflation cools, and listed falling oil prices and Anthropic withdrawing IPO pricing details among the day's themes. The outlets also disagree slightly on the meeting date: Decrypt gives December 8-9 and Bitcoin Magazine says December 9.

Each adds a different layer. Cointelegraph covers politics, noting that Democrats won both chambers of Congress and that the CLARITY Act has been stalled since January. Decrypt explains the missing annual rate, since the 2025 shutdown prevented October data collection. It gave September's last annual reading as 3.7%, while Bitcoin Magazine cited a Bank of America estimate of about 3.8% for headline and 2.7% for core.

What it means for traders and project teams

Bitcoin Magazine said bitcoin topped $87,000 in early October and has since slid, and it put the current price about $32,000 under the level of a year earlier. CoinGecko shows a 12.4% decline over 30 days. Persistent ETF redemptions mean institutional demand has not offset the macro pressure, even though BlackRock says in-kind swap demand for IBIT is at a record.

For leveraged traders, the practical check is funding and borrowing costs relative to yields available elsewhere, as Haeems described. For teams building on lending protocols, the spread between on-chain rates and Treasury yields is the number to watch. Anderson of STS Digital added that political pressure from the new Congress could reinforce the case for higher rates, though he doubted hikes would fix the underlying causes of inflation.

What to watch before the December decision

According to Bitcoin Magazine, producer price figures are due Friday, and the Fed's October meeting minutes will be published on November 18. Both could change whether traders keep their bets on a half-point hike. The next CPI report is due on December 10, one day after the Fed's December 8-9 meeting ends, so policymakers will decide without November's inflation reading, Decrypt noted.

Analysts quoted by Bitcoin Magazine pointed to $73,000 as a key level. In their view, a daily close under that mark could lead to $70,000, whereas a return above $80,000 would indicate firmer demand. Open questions include whether oil, which Bitcoin Magazine said traded near $84 a barrel, keeps easing and whether ETF outflows slow.

Market snapshot

Asset	Price	24h	7d	Market cap
Bitcoin (BTC)	$73,621	-1.4%	-5.3%	$1.48 trillion
Ethereum (ETH)	$2,056	-2.8%	-10.4%	$251.31 billion
Aave (AAVE)	$122	-3.8%	-4.7%	$1.89 billion

CoinGecko data as of 2026-11-11 (UTC).

FAQ

What did October's US inflation report show?

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% forecast, and core CPI rose 0.3% against an expected 0.2%. Headline inflation was slower than September's 0.6%. No annual rate was published because the 2025 shutdown disrupted data collection.

How likely is a half-point Fed hike in December?

According to Cointelegraph, CME FedWatch data at 16:28 UTC on Tuesday implied 11.7% odds of a half-point increase and 88.3% odds of a quarter-point one. Decrypt, citing Reuters, said analysts put the half-point probability at nearly 15% by midmorning. A quarter-point increase remained the clear favorite.

Why does higher inflation tend to hurt Bitcoin?

Higher inflation usually points to higher interest rates, which make bonds and cash more attractive than assets that pay no yield. Higher borrowing costs also reduce cheap money available for speculative positions, as Decrypt explained. Forced liquidations of leveraged trades can add to the selling.