Live updates: Bitcoin rises above $62,000 as the red hot semiconductor trade starts to fade

Green shoots across crypto markets today, with Cardano's native token leading among the majors. ADA gained 14% throughout the day, though it only bounced back to mid-June levels and is still down roughly 50% year-to-date.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Zcash (ZEC), which have both been in investor attention over the past months, were up 6%-7% in the session, while Worldcoin (WLD), the iris-scanning blockchain project co-founded by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, was 8% higher.

Bitcoin was holding above $62,000, up 0.8% over the past 24 hours, while the broad-market CoinDesk 20 Index advanced 1.7% during the same period, suggesting altcoin outperformance nears the weekend.

Circle (CRCL) perpetual futures on Hyperliquid rose 3% Friday as a report sparked skepticism about newly-announced rival stablecoin offering Open USD's impressive consortium that listed over 140 firms including giants like Stripe, Mastercard, BlackRock as launch partners.

South Korea-based news outlet reported earlier today that several local firms such as Samsung denied any official consultations with Open Standard and their role in it.

Circle plummeted 17% on Tuesday when Open USD was unveiled, drawing investor concerns about threat to USDC and the firm's business model.

While U.S. stock markets are closed today, blockchain derivative markets trade around-the-clock, allowing price discovery during weekends and holidays.

With U.S. markets closed for the Independence Day holiday, investors are looking overseas for clues on risk sentiment and the picture is broadly calm heading into the weekend.

European equities are edging higher, with London's FTSE 100 up 0.1% and Germany's DAX gaining 0.7%.

Canada's benchmark S&P/TSX Composite climbed about 1% in morning trading, hovering just below a record high.

A check on commodities shows gold and silver continue to bounce from recent lows, rising 1% and 2.1%, respectively.

Meanwhile, crude oil is holding below $70 a barrel after giving back all of its advance from the Iran war that erupted at the end of February. Oil is now down more than 40% from this year's panic-driven peak.

With U.S. markets shut and European trading winding down, activity is likely to remain subdued for the rest of the session.

Solana (SOL) is showing signs of rejuvenation that could bode well for the depressed altcoin market.

The token gained 35% since the early June trough, while bitcoin (BTC) sank to a fresh 21-month low earlier this week before bouncing to $62,000 today.

Bitfinex analysts said this outperformance fits historical patterns. "Altcoins are the first to sell off and the first to turn as well," they said.

Bitcoin jumps above $62,000, reaching an intraday high of $62,170, gaining 0.75% over the past 24 hours.

Here's a quick update of what's happening in the markets on this U.S. holiday.

The CoinDesk 20 Index is rising for a third straight day. That's the first three-day run since mid-June. The index has gained 1.61% since midnight UTC, taking the streak to 7.36%. All 20 members of the index are higher, with bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, posting one of the smallest moves, 0.75%. Near token leads the way with a 6.1% advance since midnight.

There's greater movement among smaller altcoins. The CoinDesk 80 Index has advanced 2.3%, with only 10 members declining. Tokens including Decentraland, SPX6900 and Celestia are showing gains in excess of 10%.

The macro headwinds that drove bitcoin's worst ETF month on record are fading, Can-Luca Köymen, investment strategist at Sygnum Bank, told CoinDesk in emailed comments.

Oil has fallen back below pre-war levels as the Strait of Hormuz reopened faster than expected and Gulf supply recovered, removing the energy-driven inflation impulse that pushed the Fed hawkish through June. Warsh's July 1 comments acknowledging that inflation risks have come down read as a tonal shift from the June dot plot, and a softening labor market points the same way.

Together, Köymen says, those factors argue for rate hike probabilities to reprice lower.

Crypto's own signals are moving in the same direction. Long-term holders have returned to net accumulation and whales have been building aggressively into weakness, a cohort Köymen noted has historically timed entries better than the newer, non-native investors accessing bitcoin through ETFs.

With bitcoin trading below its 200-day moving average and beneath the previous cycle's high, he sees the entry point as relatively attractive.

Sygnum expects ETF outflows to turn positive in July, though summer liquidity means any inflows will likely be modest rather than a flood.

A July 17 congressional hearing on the CLARITY Act, which would establish clearer rules for crypto assets, is a separate watch item. A surprise push toward passage could act as an additional catalyst.

Bitcoin is on course for its best weekly performance since the end of April, when it rallied to just above $80,000, gaining nearly 4% so far this week. Bitcoin has posted just three positive weeks over the past 10 and continues to hold above the key $60,000 support level, although it remains below its 200 week moving average of around $62,660.

Have we seen the first signs of capital rotating back into bitcoin from memory and semiconductor stocks?

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM), which have led the surge in semiconductor and memory stocks throughout 2026, have largely left bitcoin and the broader crypto market sidelined.

The Roundhill Memory ETF has fallen roughly 25% from its June 22 all time high, while SMH is down around 12%. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $58,000 on July 1 before rebounding above $61,000 by July 3.

Traders have scaled back expectations for U.S. interest rate hikes after Thursday’s disappointing jobs report.

The economy created just 57,000 jobs in June, well below the 110,000 consensus forecast.

As such, the Federal Reserve is now expected to hold its benchmark rate steady in the 3.50%–3.75% range at both the July and September meetings, with the first 25-basis-point hike now priced in for October.

This dovish shift has lifted risk assets and precious metals, pushing Bitcoin above $61,000, gold past $4,100 per ounce, and silver above $62 per ounce.

While bitcoin’s price has bounced from 21-month lows, it still remains below the pivotal 200-week simple moving average (SMA), a sign that a full-blown bull reversal is not yet confirmed.

As of this writing, the leading cryptocurrency is changing hands near $61,700, marking a notable recovery from the 21-month lows under $58,000 reached earlier this week. The recovery is accompanied by renewed demand for spot ETFs, suggesting potential continuation to the upside.

However, prices still remain below the 200-week SMA, currently at $62,660.

This line has been widely cited as major support since February and served as a strong accumulation zone where bear markets have historically tended to bottom. A decisive breakout above it would confirm the bullish narrative and could draw in more buyers.

Roughly 10.83 million BTC are currently held at a loss, meaning their holders paid more than today's price, against 9.22 million still in profit, according to Glassnode data. It is the first time loss-making supply has overtaken profitable supply since the current cycle began and reflects how deep the correction from bitcoin's $109,000 January peak has cut.

Historically, these crossovers have landed near periods of peak financial stress and capitulation among newer buyers. They have also marked the point at which coins migrate from weaker hands to stronger ones, since only holders with high conviction tend to sit on losses rather than sell. Long-term holder accumulation and rising wallet-cohort balances across several size brackets have run alongside this latest deterioration in profitability.

Bitcoin traded at $61,361 on Thursday, up 0.7% on the day and 2.5% on the week, still roughly 51% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080. Ether added 4.2% to $1,702, and Solana led the majors at 18.6% on the week to $80.44, with volume running above $3.6 billion.

Whether the supply crossover marks a bottom depends on what follows. In 2018-19 and 2022, similar readings preceded months of basing before a sustained recovery. The chart does not resolve on its own. ETF flows returning and macro pressure easing are what convert the accumulation signal into a price signal.CORRECT (07:45 UTC): Corrects all-time high in third paragraph.

Source: CoinDesk