Galaxy Research argues that the bitcoin downturn bottomed in June and that buyers have since been steadily building positions. The call rests on moving averages, ETF flows and U.S. debt, and the firm names a weekly close below about $76,540 as the level that would challenge it.
Galaxy puts the bottom at June and tells readers to hold
Galaxy Research says bitcoin's bear market is over. In a research alert, the firm concluded that the decline finished with the June low and that bitcoin has since moved into a stage of steady buying by holders. Decrypt quoted Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, as writing: "we believe now is an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin."
Bitcoin Magazine said bitcoin traded near $80,000 when the note was written. That is about 35% below the October 2025 high and 39% above the June 30 low. The Block carried the same headline conclusion and attributed the call to fading selling by long-term holders.
The chart case: a floor, a ceiling and a long stretch below it
Galaxy tracks bear markets with two weekly moving averages. In Galaxy's framework, the longer 200-week line has supported price during every such episode, while the 50-week line has capped rallies. Bitcoin lost the 50-week line in November 2025 and spent 44 weeks beneath it. The June low tested the 200-week line and held, with the worst weekly close landing 4.7% under it.
Price then closed back above the 50-week average in September. The week ended Oct. 18 was the fifth straight weekly close above it. Galaxy counted 13 such reclaims since 2011 and said the result depended on how long price had stayed below the line. After the four reclaims that ended stretches of 20 weeks or longer, price stood 55% to 1,497% higher twelve months on. Seven of the nine reclaims after shorter spells fell more than 25% within a year.
Key figures behind the call
Several of Galaxy's figures describe how unusual this drawdown has been compared with earlier cycles.
- The 53% decline is the shallowest in bitcoin's history, against drops of 77% to 93% in past cycles, as Decrypt summarized the report.
- Bitcoin's market value stayed above its realized value, which reflects the price at which each coin last changed hands. The ratio's low this cycle was 1.10, compared with 0.56, 0.69 and 0.75 in earlier ones.
- Earlier cycles bottomed 777, 889 and 912 days after a halving. Oct. 22 was day 916 of the current one.
- U.S. spot bitcoin ETF holdings declined 11% from peak to trough, and since the June low the funds have taken on 87,000 BTC more.
- According to Decrypt, coins that had sat unmoved for at least five years have been sold at roughly 34,000 BTC monthly in 2026, half the rate seen in 2024.
Who sold the top and who bought the dip
In Galaxy's reading, basis traders and macro funds were the biggest sellers after the top. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data cited by the firm show that asset managers' net long exposure to CME bitcoin futures dropped 57% from the week the record was set. Leveraged funds' net short position, which is the futures side of a cash-and-carry trade paired with spot ETFs, contracted by a comparable amount. The front-month basis averaged 4.8% annualized in the 30 days to Oct. 21, down from 7.9% before the high. The firm said that yield is now too thin to compensate for what the trade costs and the risk it carries.
Using 13F filings, the firm named nine institutions, including Millennium Management, Goldman Sachs and D. E. Shaw, that cut spot ETF holdings by 29% to 100% between the September 2025 and June 2026 quarter-ends, a combined 68,000 BTC. Holdings summed across all 2,200 filers fell by just 48,000 BTC, which means the remaining institutions were net buyers. Buyers named in the report include the wealth management arm of Morgan Stanley, Mubadala and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council.
Debt, yields and a sentiment argument
Galaxy's fundamental case centers on U.S. public finances. As of Oct. 20, federal debt stood at $40.44 trillion, the fiscal 2026 deficit came to $1.99 trillion, and on Oct. 5 the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.31%, a level not seen since 2007. Galaxy contends that a government rolling over its debt at about 5% while posting deficits of roughly 6% is under pressure to let inflation rise. Thorn put it bluntly: "A bet against stocks and hard assets is a bet on fiat."
On sentiment, Galaxy compared today's mood with 2015-16 and 2018-19, when mainstream finance embraced blockchain while dismissing bitcoin. This time, it said, the theme is "stablecoins and tokenization, not bitcoin." Its evidence included a Sept. 15 Senate cloture vote on the Clarity Act that did not succeed and Google searches for bitcoin sitting at multiyear lows.
How the outlets differ, and what the call leaves out
The two full-text accounts agree on the core numbers but differ in detail. Bitcoin Magazine puts the price 35% below the high, while Decrypt says 36%. Bitcoin Magazine dates day 916 to Oct. 22, and Decrypt ties it to a Thursday. Decrypt also adds market context that Bitcoin Magazine omits. According to Decrypt, spot bitcoin ETFs recorded substantial withdrawals over two days after attracting $1 billion across three days, putting October's net flows below zero; stronger-than-expected inflation figures also renewed expectations of another Federal Reserve rate increase. It also noted that Galaxy and Thorn both disclose holding bitcoin.
Bitcoin Magazine alone covers the futures basis, the 13F filings and the quantum and AI-theft passages. There, Galaxy cited the $387.5 million Bitget exploit and noted that no incident involved the Bitcoin protocol itself. The report put the BTC held in outputs with exposed public keys at 7.1 million and noted that no cryptographically relevant quantum computer exists today. The Block's piece was available only as a headline and summary, so it adds nothing beyond the conclusion.
Separately, The Defiant reported that Strive bought 6,182 bitcoin, lifting its holdings to 43,000 BTC, a 16.8% increase. The period included the close of a $630 million preferred-stock offering. Only the headline and summary were available, so details beyond that are unknown.
The level and the questions to watch
Galaxy's stated tripwire is a weekly close under its 50-week average, near $76,540, followed by no recovery over the next month. CoinGecko lists bitcoin at $80,339, down 4.4% over 30 days, against a record of $126,080 set on Oct. 6, 2025. The gap to that line is therefore modest.
Open questions remain. Will ETF flows turn positive again after the recent outflow days? Will Treasury yields and rate expectations keep pressing on risk assets? And will the basis trade stay unattractive, or will it draw leveraged funds back? Galaxy itself noted that the size of past post-bottom gains has shrunk each cycle, and said it does not forecast a repeat.
Market snapshot
| Asset | Price | 24h | 7d | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $80,339 | -0.3% | -2.2% | $1.61 trillion |
CoinGecko data as of 2026-10-26 (UTC).
FAQ
Why does Galaxy say bitcoin's bear market is over?
Galaxy points to bitcoin's reclaim of the 50-week moving average in September, a 53% drawdown that is the shallowest on record, and fading selling from long-term holders. It also notes that U.S. spot ETFs have added 87,000 BTC since the June low.
What would invalidate Galaxy's call?
Galaxy's tripwire is a weekly close under the 50-week moving average, near $76,540, that price fails to win back within a month. Until then, the firm sees the accumulation phase as intact.
How far is bitcoin from its record high?
Bitcoin Magazine reported that bitcoin would need to rise 53% to retake its previous record. CoinGecko lists the all-time high as $126,080, reached on Oct. 6, 2025.
Sources
- Bitcoin Magazine: Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is Over, Galaxy Says (2026-10-26)
- Decrypt: Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is Over, Galaxy Research Says: 'Now Is an Attractive Time to Buy' (2026-10-26)
- The Block: Galaxy says bitcoin bear market is over; now is the time to buy and hold (2026-10-26)
- The Defiant: Strive Buys 6,182 Bitcoin for $511 Million, Lifting Holdings to 43,000 BTC (2026-10-26)
- CoinGecko (market data)
Written by the Coinvote news desk from reporting by Bitcoin Magazine, Decrypt, The Block and The Defiant. Not financial advice.
