Live updates: Bitcoin reverses big early gains following soft U.S. jobs data

“This is the new normal,” wrote Adam Simecka, founder of bitcoin wallet Manna. “Hope you have some bitcoin .”

Simecka said he experienced a “live price change” when buying AA batteries on Amazon, with the price increasing between the time he added the item to his cart and the time he checked out.

“When you add an item to your cart, the price shown isn't locked in,” wrote Amazon in response. “The price can go up or down between when you add it to your cart and when you actually buy it.”

One wonders if this ever results in prices going down?

The price of Brent Crude fell to as low $98.44 early Friday, bottoming at about the exact moment French President Macron said the G7 had agreed to release as much as 100 million barrels of diesel fuel and oil from reserves.

It’s been a straight up since, with Brent higher about $4 per barrel to $102.35.

WTI crude oil suffered a similar reversal, that price now at $91.36 after having tumbled to $88.

While crypto prices remain in the green on Friday, there’s been a sizable reversal in the past 90 minutes.

After jumping above $87,000 following the weak U.S. jobs numbers (which suggested monetary policy might be far easier than previously thought), bitcoin has quickly shed about $2,000, now trading at $85,300, up 1.7% over the past 24 hours.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell as low as 5.15% on weak data, but bond sellers quickly stepped in, sending it back to 5.26%, now up 4 basis points on the day.

The 2-year yield has climbed to 4.81% after sliding back to 4.71%.

It could be profit-taking, or it could be fears that the U.S. CPI report (due Oct. 14) could still spook the Fed into hiking rates despite the employment slowdown.

In any case, trading based on headlines — probably not the best route to riches.

Stocks continue not too far from session highs, the Nasdaq up 1.2%.

A weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report could pressure the dollar and give risk assets, including bitcoin, more room to rise.

U.S. payrolls rose by 29,000 in September, well below expectations for about 90,000, while unemployment climbed to 4.2%. Wage growth also missed forecasts.

LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger said the data strengthens the case for an unwind of crowded bets on a stronger dollar. That could push Treasury yields lower and reduce the U.S. rate advantage, conditions that can support risk assets such as bitcoin.

Kruger also said lower oil prices could reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten policy.

Bitcoin briefly rose above $87,000 during U.S. morning hours before retreating to $85,500.

Ten minutes into the U.S. trading session, and following the soft U.S. jobs report, the Nasdaq 100 is up more than 1% on Friday, hitting an all-time high, trading just shy of 31,000. The S&P 500 has gained 1%, putting it less than 1% below its all-time high. Bitcoin is trading above $87,000, up more than 2.5%.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY), Treasury yields and oil prices are extending their declines, supporting gains in risk assets.

Bitcoin is testing $87,000 after breaking through resistance between $85,000 and $86,000, putting $90,000 in focus as its next potential hurdle.

Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, said the weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report could help bitcoin clear $87,000, a level that has capped the cryptocurrency for much of the year.

If bitcoin breaks through that resistance, Mena sees $90,000 as the next key level, followed by $97,000. He said softer economic data could support risk assets as expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes decline, while strong spot bitcoin ETF inflows could provide added support.

Traders all week had been shedding bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike later this month.

According to CME FedWatch — which compiles its numbers from trader movements in short-term interest rate futures — the odds of a Fed move on Oct. 28 were at 70% just days ago.

They had fallen to about 25% early Friday following dovish remarks from the Fed’s John Williams on Wednesday and Philip Jefferson yesterday.

Now, after disappointing jobs numbers for September were released (including sizable downward revisions for July and August), the odds of a hike this month have plunged to just 13%.

Looking to the next meeting in December, there’s now a 25% chance the Fed doesn’t hike at all for the rest of 2026. Those odds were less than 10% earlier in the week.

Still to come in coming days, though, is inflation data for September. Stay tuned.

The U.S. labor market showed weakness in September, potentially giving the Federal Reserve room to hold interest rates even as inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. added 29,000 jobs in September, according to the government’s Nonfarm Payrolls Report released Friday morning. That was below the consensus forecast of 90,000 and compared with August’s gain of 133,000 (revised down from an originally reported 162,000).

The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, versus expectations of 4.1% and August’s reading of 4.1%.

In addition to August’s downward revision, July’s 21,000 jobs gain was revised to a jobs loss of 10,000.

Already higher on the session, bitcoin continued just under $87,000 in the minutes following the release. U.S. stock index futures were adding to gains, the Nasdaq rising 1.2%.

The 10-year Treasury yield slumped by 7 basis points to 5.17%, and the 2-year yield fell by a similar margin to 4.71%. Gold gained more than 1%, and the greenback fell versus major currencies.

Checking other report numbers, average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% last month, well shy of forecasts for 0.3% and August’s 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings were higher by 3% against forecasts for 3.2% and August’s 3.1%.

A sharp drop in the German 10-year Bund yield, combined with continued gains in the French 10-year OAT yield, has widened the spread between the two to 152 basis points.

This spread is typically in the 50-80 basis points range.

During the European debt crisis of 2011, the spread blew out to roughly 190 basis points, so current conditions are approaching those levels.

The difference now: Inflation in 2011 was more or less non-existent, allowing the ECB to provide the necessary monetary ease to defuse the crisis. The ECB today, though, is dealing with growing inflation issues and has been in policy-tightening mode.

Bitcoin is up almost 2% over the past 24 hours, trading above $86,000 as markets await the week’s biggest macroeconomic release, the U.S. jobs report. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%, with nonfarm payrolls forecast to rise by 90,000.

Precious metals are also edging higher, with gold trading just below $4,200 an ounce and silver above $61. WTI crude oil has fallen 4% over the past 24 hours to below $90 a barrel, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has eased slightly to 5.22%. While, tech futures are also up roughly 0.60%.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains strong above 102.

Source: CoinDesk